Thursday, March 26, 2009

Gold as an investment

During the stock market crash of '08 (seems weird to say that), I heard a lot of radio and TV ads (and saw a lot of newspaper and magazine ads) promoting gold as an investment. This is normal during bear markets and times when the economy is in a recession. Last year saw gold break through the $1000 price for the first time ever. But is gold a good investment? Like stocks, it depends on your time frame. For the last several years, gold has certainly beat the return of stocks (as measured by by the S&P 500) but does that mean it's the right asset to own now? If you had bought gold back in 1980, you would not have broke even until about 2007. That's a pretty long time. Stocks were, in fact, the best asset to own from 1982 to 1999. But who invests for long periods on time anymore? Not many. The average holding period for most mutual funds is something like 1.2 years. People are fickle. Investors may say they invest for the long term, but their actions prove otherwise. If you are a buy low, sell high investor, the best time to have purchased gold was around 2000, at the peak of the stock market. But how many people did? Not many, I suspect. So after a bull market in gold from 2000 to 2009, would this seem like the best time to buy gold? Perhaps not. It's like asking the day traders who watched stocks run up from 1987 to 1999 if it was the right time to buy stocks. We all know what happened in March 2000. The beginning of a 3 year bear market in stocks. With the direction the stock market has been going lately, it would seem like a better time to buy stocks than gold. Only time will tell. At least with most stocks you can also make money on dividends, which is one thing gold does not do. Gold is strictly an appreciation play. I might add a little gold to my portfolio as an extra layer of diversification, but I would not put all my money in gold right now or any time. Good luck Glenn Beck! I like you as a radio host, but not as a financial advisor.

2 comments:

Rich in Cincy said...

Nicely stated Scott. I personally am on the fence regarding gold because of the Fed's actions recently. Though it appears the fears of deflation might be passing, the fact that the Fed is using an anvil to kill the "deflation mouse" tend to make me believe that runaway inflation is only a year away. This would make me want to own gold.

Scott Wheeler said...

TIPS are also a good hedge against inflation, Rich. There's an ETF you can buy called TIP, check it out. Thanks for the comments!