Predictions

This is the time of the year when lots of people like to make lots of predictions. The so called experts make their expectations known on everything from who will win an Oscar, to how much will the stock markets gain (or lose), to who will win the World Series. What's really interesting is how much stock (no pun intended) people put into these predictions, and even more interesting is that no one is really held accountable if their predictions fail miserably. For example, last year, all the experts predicted a positive, although not spectacular, year in the stock markets. Of course what we got was the worst year in the markets since 1931, a recession, many failed companies, etc. But again, no one held them accountable. When asked what happened, they said, well no one could expect the unraveling of the markets like we saw, especially because of the government intervention that took place, which was unprecedented. Unprecedented is a word experts will use to say that they were wrong, but it wasn't their fault. Guess what? They are predicting an up year in the markers, this year too! Now with something like the Oscars, I think this is so subjective, that you might as well pick the winners out of a hat. What really is the question I always have is, who watches most of these movies, and who decides who is nominated? Because with the Oscars, it's all about being nominated. You can't win if you're not nominated and just being nominated seems to be a big deal. How many times have you seen a movie trailer and at the end when they give the names of the stars they say, "...nominated for 5 Oscars!" That means, they never actually won an Oscar, but they were nominated! And finally baseball...when the sportswriters and TV analysts give their predictions for who will win the next World Series, it's always based on who is the best "on paper". Now what we know is that almost always, the best team on paper usually doesn't win. Why? Because injuries can devastate a team's performance. If you lose one or two of your top players, you are doomed. Take the 2007 and 2008 St. Louis Cardinals. They lost their top pitcher, Chris Carpenter for most of both of those seasons, and even though they also have Albert Pujols, could not make the playoffs. On paper, they were a top team that was supposed to compete in a weak division with their rival Chicago Cubs, but it just didn't materialize. So what to make of predictions? Take them with a grain of salt. Use them for entertainment purposes only. Our local newspaper, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last year "predicted" that Barack Obama could not win the presidential election. Wrong! Mark Twain once said, if you are going to make a prediction, make a bunch of them. Chances are one might be right! So far this year, my wife has predicted that I would lose 12 pounds on my water diet experiment. One loyal reader predicts I will lose 5. My goal (prediction) is 20! Who will be right? We'll see on Dec. 31st. So far, I have lost 4 pounds already! I better send Oprah a message and tell her how she can lose the 40 pounds she has tacked on recently!